How Patience Turned SMCI Into a High-Probability $1,954 Swing Trade
By Harsh Shah · Updated
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Who doesn’t want high-confidence, high-probability setups?
SMCI was one of those rare trades where waiting mattered more than acting.
This wasn’t a chase — it was a plan that played out exactly as expected.
Within a month, I booked $1,954 in profits and I’m still holding a portion of the position.
Patience wasn’t optional here — it was the edge.
October 10, 2025: The Watch, Not the Trade
On October 10, SMCI was trading around $59–$60.
Most people were excited.
The narrative was loud: “New highs coming. $100+ next.”
I wasn’t interested.
At that level, price was stretched and sitting near a major rejection zone. It looked expensive — not opportunistic.
So instead of buying, I did something simpler:
I added SMCI to my watchlist.
I’m not a day trader.
I don’t chase strength.
I wait for price to come to me.
Two Scenarios, One Plan
Once SMCI hit resistance, I mapped out two possible paths
Scenario 1 — Breakout:
If price broke above resistance, I would wait for a pullback. I wanted to see former resistance turn into support before entering.
Scenario 2 — Rejection:
If price was rejected, I’d stay patient and wait for price to fall into a long-term support
zone — a level it had respected multiple times in the past.
No predictions.
Just preparation.
December 18th, 2025 — Two Months of Patience
Almost two months later, the second scenario played out.
Price collapsed — fast.
And then it did exactly what I was waiting for:
It tagged long-term support ~29$.
Bonus factor: There was an RSI divergence in Play too.
December 18th, 2025 — Jan 14th, 2025
During this timeframe, the price ranged between 27.5–29$.
I didn’t go all-in.
I started accumulating slowly — piece by piece — building a position with an average price of $29.30.
No rush.
No emotion.
Just execution.
Jan 16th, 2025 — The inevitable bounce
It has bounced ~15% from its lows, SMCI is trading around $32.64.
I booked 50% of the position, locking in $1,954 in gains, and I’m letting the rest run — to stay exposed to further upside while locking in profits — reducing risk without cutting off potential gains.
Final Thoughts
This trade had nothing to do with predicting where SMCI would go next.
It was about waiting.
Waiting for price to move into a zone where risk was defined, probability was skewed, and emotions were removed from the decision.
Most traders lose money not because their analysis is wrong, but because they act too early — chasing strength, forcing trades, or reacting to noise.
High-probability setups don’t appear often.
But when they do, they reward patience, discipline, and preparation.
This is how trading stops feeling like gambling and starts feeling like execution.
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